Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism

Guided by the capacity price policy, it is of great significance for building a clean, safe, economical and flexible new power system to optimize the market-oriented mechanism of coal-fired power projects on the basis of fully evaluating the loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects in various regions. Taking three typical coal-fired power units as research objects, this paper proposes an improved coal-fired power regional levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model by introducing the concept of equivalent units, so as to calculate and compare the LCOE of provincial coal-fired power units before and after the introduction of capacity price. On this basis, an investment return rate model for coal-fired power units is constructed, and the return-risk zones of regional coal-fired power units are calculated according to the current on-grid electricity price combined with the capacity price policy. The results show that the introduction of the capacity price mechanism has exerted a significant impact on the regional LCOE of coal-fired power, driving an overall declines in this cost level. Meanwhile, the average return range of regional coal-fired power units has been adjusted upward. Notably, the return levels of coal-fired power projects in western and northeastern China remain relatively low, indicating that such projects still face the possibility of losses during operation and their operational risks require attention. The research results can provide theoretical support for the formulation of regional coal-fired power prices and also serve as a decision-making basis for the market-oriented reform of coal-fired power.