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基于生产模拟与熵权法的“核蓄”联营规划

Nuclear-Pumped Storage Combined Operation Planning Based on Production Simulation and Entropy Weight Method

  • 摘要: 抽水蓄能调峰削谷效果明显,与核电联营能够稳定核电利用小时数,但也将压缩新能源发电的消纳空间。针对这一矛盾,立足于系统效益开展了“核蓄”联营的规划研究。从出力等效与经济效益2个维度界定“核蓄”联营的合理配比。在此基础上,基于8 760 h生产模拟获取不同“核蓄”联营规模的系统发电成本、新能源消纳率、煤电发电量等关键数据画像。基于熵权法赋予关键指标客观权重,将多元数据凝聚为综合评价,准确推荐最优联营规模。结果表明,所建立的分析方法能够满足多指标维度下的“核蓄”联营规划,同时以合理规模开展“核蓄”联营能够获得关键指标约束下的最优综合效益。

     

    Abstract: Pumped storage demonstrates significant peak-shaving and valley-filling effects. While combined operations with nuclear power can stabilize the utilization hours of nuclear plants, they may also compress the generation space for renewable energy. To address this conflict, this paper explores the planning of "nuclear-pumped storage" combined operation from system benefits. First, the reasonable installation ratio is studied from two dimensions: output equivalence and economic benefits. On this basis, using an 8 760-hour production simulation, it obtains key data profiles such as system generation costs, renewable energy accommodation rates, and coal power generation volumes for different combined operation scales. Finally, based on the objective weights assigned to key indicators by the entropy weight method, it integrates multiple data into a comprehensive evaluation to accurately recommend the optimal combined operation scale. The results indicate that the established analysis method can meet the requirements for combined operation planning across multiple indicator dimensions; conducting combined operation at a reasonable scale can achieve optimal overall benefits under the constraints of key indicators.

     

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